Swine Flu & the Economy

This is a 2007 video of the BRILLIANT Laurie Garrett discussing pandemic readiness. Her talk is in relation to the H5N1 virus, but covers the 1918 Swine Flu Outbreak, as well as our current state of preparedness for handling such an event. 

Since Mexico is ground zero for the swine flu virus that has all the world's attention, I have been watching that country's governmental response to the problem. 

Yesterday they decided to suspend all operations of private businesses and forced all travel to ground to a halt. This type of response can be expected to spread as the virus threat-level is raised.

I thought it relevant to post this video here at the Oasis because, around the world,  shopping habits are already beginning to change in the face of this somewhat mild threat.

Mrs. Garrett also spends a portion of her presentation discussing over the counter and prescription products that are associated with controlling flu outbreaks.

Her talk is 14 minutes long, with an additional (and very informative) 6-minute Q&A to follow.

Enjoy:

Someone You Should Know

Barry Schwartz is BRILLIANT!

Here he talks about a new pathway to turning around the fortunes of all members and organizations within our society.

I find his section on education particularly illuminating.

Enjoy!

70% off HOME PRICES?

Homes that sold for $275,000 in 2006 are selling for $80,000 now.

The problem is there's still loads of inventory on the market at these unbelievably low prices.

Read the Forbes article by Matt Woolsey HERE

Uh Oh!

After 5 months of predicting (but ultimately praying I was wrong) this is where this company was headed, the shoe dropped on a Giant.

The Guardian of UK's headlines reads:

America's Second Largest Shopping-mall Owner Collapses

Read the article HERE

Cost Plus Joins the Coupon Camp

Our friends over at Cost Plus World market are going the Borders Books route. Coupons may bring a small bump in new customer business, but ultimately they train your regular customers when to shop...and that ain't good.

Print it out and save 25%.

More details HERE

Who's Going To Pay For All This?

We are, that's who!

This weeks must read article, from the New York Times.

"Cities Turn To Fees To Fill Budget Gaps"

Essentially it lists things that are usually paid for with our tax dollars, such as street lights and emergency services response teams, being charged to us directly. 

Please take the time to read the article HERE

Opposite Day!

I spent the better part of last week listening to everyone on television and the newspapers telling me "we have reached the bottom!"

Since I was juggling so much over the past 10 days or so, I had no opportunity to ensure that the people that dwell in reality remain firmly grounded in the facts.

It seems that whenever the Dow Jones goes up, and it went up plenty last week, the bobble heads all start talking the "everything is alright" crap!

The reality is, as Nassim Taleb so brilliantly points out in The Black Swan, the stock market is not a snapshot of American economic health. Besides, I don't know very many "common" people that are still in the market these days, beyond your (required) 401k, I mean.

Here are a few of the Headlines you may have missed while collective noise from the Wall Street cheerleaders overwhelmed you:

1. Retailer Gottschalks is starting it's liquidation.
   
2. Ritz Camera starts liquidation on this Saturday.
   
3. General Growth Properties, the nations largest shopping center developer, is nearing bankruptcy.
   
4. Bankruptcy filings are up across the country by anywhere from 27% to some 86%, year over year, during MARCH!
   
5. 10% of the nation is NOW ON FOOD STAMPS! That's over 32 million people, and there is evidence of another 6-7 million being refused due to barely being above the poverty threshold.
   
6. Pier 1 announced it will close an additional 20 stores by the end of the month.
   
7. The City of Chicago is closing all it's mental health facilities due to budget shortfalls (Hey it worked for Reagan).
   
8. Blockbuster Video is near insolvency, with many (self included) seeing them fold before 2010.
   
9. Nevada based casino Bally's closed their Sports Book (operation for taking sports bets) last Tuesday, March 31, without warning...even to employees.
   

Now on a much more local note, Ethel's Chocolate is closing 5 of 6 "boutique's" BY THE END OF APRIL! With plans to close the last by the end of the year.

Lot's of bad news, I know, but it is only to ensure you keep your nose to the grindstone. The economy is literally just starting to reveal how far away we are from the bottom, not the bottom itself.

April began the "Period of Revelation", a three-month period of time, in which how badly scarred (or healthy) retailers are after a tough Holiday period and the worst 1st Quarter in roughly 40 years. Those that are in trouble will no longer be able to hide, as there is massive debt repayments due at the end of April and lots of capital needed for 4th Quarter purchases. Non-performers are not going to be able to secure loans and will summarily have to take a bow.

As earnings start rolling in at the end of the week, I will try to keep you abreast of the score.

Maybe I have had one too many "crabby-patties", but I think this is only the beginning.

How the Olympics ARE Already Benefitting Chicago

I will say out front, I am not in support of the Olympic Games being held in the city of Chicago. There are too many reasons to list, but I will give you just one to chew on; Our city has not been it's beautiful self for quite some time.

The potholes that pock the city streets are not new, they were here, for the most part, since last winter's tremendous snowfall events took their toll.

The parks that are not located in the loop are starting to show wear and tear for the first time in at least a decade.

Even the beautiful skyline, surely the envy of every (at least American) city, now, squeamishly and humbly, announce our pain due to the economic downturn in the form of "FOR RENT" and "Now Leasing" signs braving the famously brisk wind atop many a skyscraper.

However Chicagoans, there are already a few benefits starting to roll in as a result of our being a serious candidate. Here are a few we can all find solace in:

Governor Pat Quinn (did I really just type those words?) is pushing a bill to extend, by 90 days, the amount of time homeowners can stay in their homes while fighting foreclosure. Does anyone believe that Gov. Quinn would go up against the powerful Financial and Real-Estate lobby's if there was no IOC watching our city for cracks in the foundation?

Me either (read about it here).

Chicago has also started re-paving the lakefront bike paths, for both sides of the city. The new paths are extra-wide, making them useful to walkers, bikers, runners and those tourists just out on a stroll. Of course this was done with the Olympics in mind, but what are they going to do, tear up the pavement if the IOC says no?

So hooray beer, we no longer have to deal with the pedestrian equivalent of the Hillside Strangler at Diversey Harbor anymore. Thank you IOC!

We also got our Buckingham Fountain back. Can you believe it? A large city project finished on time and budget? The fountain that forced me to learn about architecture is back.

As a high-schooler we took a trip to the fountain and, though I had visited almost 2 dozen times before, I spent the day learning about the fountain for the first time. The experience led me to learn, and love, more about Chicago than ever. I have never ceased to learn about our city and have never ceased my very Ike Turner-ish love affair since June morning.

Thank to Mayor Richard Daley wanting to show the fountain off to the visiting IOC, it's back on and more beautiful than ever. Thanks again Olympic folks!

Lastly, let's all thank heavens for the Olympic people getting President Obama to talk about Chicago. Lord knows we haven't heard anything from him about our (AND HIS!!!!!) fair city in quite some time, save for "please send the Olympics to Chicago."

Yes, I know the prior resident at 1600 Pennsylvania left President Obama lots to clean up. Yes, I know we are in the midst of a Depression (he still says recession though). And yes, I know he is busy making google eyes, oops I meant goo-goo eyes at the International community.

However, here are just three reasons our city should be rolling off his tongue these days:

1. Thirty-One (31) Chicago Public School CHILDREN have been KILLED SINCE SEPTEMBER (maybe higher by the time you are reading this). President Obama chose, as the person to lead America's schools to a bright new future, ....................Arne Duncan. A person without an Education degree of any kind, and the former "CEO (yes, the first ever because his educational background and experience did not qualify him to be Superintendent)" of Chicago Public Schools.

He left a huge problem here in his wake, so...don't you think the President, being from the Murder Capitol of the United States, discussing the plight of Afghan schoolkids smacks a bit brittle in the face of what is happening in Chicago.

2. A sitting U.S. Governor has been indicted for trying to sell the Senate seat he vacated to when ascending to the Presidency.

3. His White House Chief of Staff has been named as one of the people said Gov. targeted for kickbacks.

So there are numerous reasons to have President Obama out talking about the City he calls home, it just has not happened. Oh, except for the Olympics.

So Thank You Olympic people! You have already given us more than we could have ever expected on a usual basis. I for one will not be out picketing you, because I am fully aware we Chicagoan's can never repay you for what you have already bestowed.

Please Listen to Nassim Taleb

He is BRILLIANT!

I really cannot believe he is making the television rounds. 

Please note the music played over his voice for the last 90 seconds:

Feeling Froggy?

Then Leap.

Here they go again. 

Time for this season's first to blink contest.

And the winner is ...............

SAK'S FIFTH AVENUE!!!!!!!!!

After enraging the retail community last fall by doing markdowns +40% off in October (?!?), here comes the first, in recent memory, idea of pre-Easter promotions.

They are not the only one's doing crazy discounting.

As the previous article stated, Macy's is doing 80% off (and still have tons of inventory) without success, but at least that is Fall merchandise.

Nordstrom moved its annual June Half-Yearly Sale to early-MAY. 

And just about every retailer has maintained deep discounting on their websites, which are fall less scrutinized by the analysts covering the sector.

Well, I guess that's good news to the few people that seem to be in a shopping mood these days.

The troubling reality of all this is, mid-April begins the slow selling cycle for retailers, bottoming out in late-June through to early-August, at which time Back-To-School necessities bring shoppers back to the stores. 

Woefully sales figures thus far, early discounting and bigger inventory levels than 4th quarter 2008 continue to plague the industry. This is the start of failure season, when you will start to see companies filing for bankruptcy, liquidating and doing lay-offs. This happens because they understand the cycle and do not have any prospects for HUGE turnarounds for the next 6 months. 

The stores are thinking of helping the customers that walk through the front door of their establishment. However April marks a stark shift in planning and resource allocation in the minds of the Executive and Merchandising teams at 90% of retailers: 4th Quarter!

The stress being a little higher for this year's buy than any other. Mostly because, to the merchant teams who have the unenviable task of figuring out what you and I want 6 months from now, and more importantly, what we will pay for it, the reality is....

Get it right this year or their company more than likely will not be around in 2010.

I Am Legend

Before we start, I promised a very helpful young lady that I would let my readers know about Lord & Taylor's free shipping for online purchases of $99 and more (click HERE). Since free shipping is New Economy, I have now done so.

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I took a trip to a Chicago-area shopping mall last night with with a friend and, as you can imagine, I was moved enough to write about it. What you cannot imagine, is why?

We headed over to the Old Orchard Mall in Skokie, Illinois, just about 7 miles northwest of the Chicago city limits. This outdoor mall is a notoriously busy shopping destination (especially on warmer days), as it houses the most complete collection of stores, entertainment and dining options that serve Chicago's monied North Shore suburban communities, such as Lake Forest, Winnetka, Wilmette, Kenilworth and Glencoe, as well as the MASSIVE population center of Evanston, IL.

The 10-15 minute drive from Chicago's Rogers Park neighborhood and ample public transportation make Old Orchard's many luxury destinations (Tiffany, Nordstrom, Subway) a desirable option for many city residents as well.

So, taking what you now know (or knew, if you you are an area resident) about Old Orchard Shopping Center and it's surrounding communities into account, you can understand why the following observations were so stunning to me and my counterpart.

1. We arrived at 7:00 pm, on a cool Friday night and immediately found parking (less than 45 seconds after entering the parking lot). The spot, second from the door of THE FOOD COURT, had two additional spots right next to ours, with very few other cars driving around looks for openings.

2. The food court was virtually empty, with over 60% of those eating having ingested, or were in the process of ingesting, Subway. $5 foot long is sooooooo New Economy. As a matter of fact, from this point forward, $5 foot long is the official meal of the New Economy! If someone can top it, I am open to suggestions.

3. No lines at any of the theaters (with the highly anticipated "I Love You Man", a new Nicholas Cage film and the first starring role for Julia Robert's in 4 years all opening last night), a virtually empty Barnes & Noble (less than 15 people inside), not one restaurant had a wait time for tables and much fewer than 1oo people encountered in the entire mall during our 2-hour trip.

4. Macy's was having one of those head-scratching sales where you cannot believe they are "giving away" the stuff for such low prices. For example: Table(S) of Ike Behar, Ted Baker and Ralph Lauren neckties, which all retail in the neighborhood of $125, were all $8.99!, racks upon racks of clearance at 75-80% off everywhere and 11 racks of men's shoes at 65% off. Yet, not a soul was shopping. 

Perhaps you think I am saying not many people were shopping the sale? I am not saying such a thing. I am saying exactly what I witnessed: NOT A SOUL WAS SHOPPING!

I talked to 3 sales people, who separately verified that "nobody is buying anything these days" and, based on the generally immaculate presentation of the sale tables and clearance fixtures, evidence suggests they were telling the truth.

Wandering past the women's areas of the store on our way out, we noticed no less than eight double-sided, 10-foot long clearance fixtures with $4.99 signs atop them. These fixtures were stuffed to the gills with merchandise. As I told my friend last night, perhaps that was the most telling sight of the evening: If QUALITY $4.99 dresses, blazers, jeans, sweaters, shirts and skirts do not get people into your store, what will? 

I truly believe America's shopping habit (sic, pricing threshold) may have changed for the foreseeable future, by which I mean the next 5-10 years, or so.

If you price a suit at LESS THAN a $5 foot long and nobody budges, you are experiencing the New Economy from a front row seat. 

To close out the Macy's story, they are in TROUBLE. Way over inventory, no customers and unable to find a pricing strategy that agrees with their customer's idea of fair value = retail molotov cocktail!

6. No Teens at the mall. I say this with great trepidation: If teens are opting out of spending time at the shopping mall (I counted 5 total last night) most, if not all, major shopping centers will be in bankruptcy by mid-June/early July. There will be no recovering from this development. It will take minimally 5-7 years to climb back from such a blow.

7. Every mall store had posted closing hours of 9pm, however, as we walked by stores at 8:15, we saw many a light out, with doors locked. By 8:35 most stores, save the large department stores, were locked and vacated. 

I am not saying this was the wrong idea (in fact it was exactly the right idea). What I am saying is, for this to be the general practice of the entire mall, my notes regarding the lack of shoppers during this trip is not out of the norm, and has had to be the case for quite some time. 

Lights out at 8:30 on the first day of spring at a major shopping center is not normal. As a matter of fact, it's unheard of!

So as we made our way through the mall, back to our car, I could not help identifying with Will Smith's character in the movie "I Am Legend", wondering if "anyone is out there?"

In the movie, after he has had the question answered in the affirmative, the larger question consumes him as the screen goes black and the titles begin to roll....."Can we (humankind) come back from this?" 

In short, I don't know?

Now that's how you let the beat build.

The Economy's War on Children

I have been reading a number of interesting developments in regards to companies that service children and young adults.

Hopefully you have already had that talk with your kids about the New Economy, because if not, some of their habits are going to be broken for them.

From the obvious (you can't charge 55.00 for the right to walk in the door and expect to get away with it forever!)...

Ahead of the Bell: Six Flags bankruptcy fears grow

To the tragic (can there be a more telling sign of the times?)...

Sesame Street’ Producer to Reduce Workforce by 20%

To downright disastrous (careful, this is a very sore subject for me. How can this be an option?)...

Economy may force school for autism students to close their doors

To the unthinkable...

Police chiefs: Failing economy could lead to child abuse

The economy is having a big impact on the world our children have come to know.

But since there is no way I am leaving my first post on kids on a downer note, read this article and  know that we can do better and will be just fine:

Kids Market Sale Aimed At Helping Families Through Economic Slump

This idea is so inspiring, so New Economy, I hope we can see this instituted in communities across the country.

Let's make it happen America!

A Big Black Eye

This is a story you may, or may not, know about, but it is certainly something you should know is going on...and on it's way to your city (if it has not already arrived) once the weather breaks.

America is certainly better than this.

During the beginning of the Depression, several people wandering the nation in search of work started erecting, shanty-like, permanent shelters in large cities. These were comprised mostly of men, many of whom had left their families behind, with the understanding that once work was found, they'd be sent for.

As the Depression deepened, more shanty and tent communities started popping up all over the country, to the point where it was no longer looked upon as abnormal to see them. Because President Herbert Hoover was generally viewed (then) as the person responsible for ignoring the plight of the common-folk, thus allowing their situations to drift into such horrific conditions, these makeshift towns were named "Hoover-villes."

As more people started losing their homes and farms, ultimately being displaced from their longtime residences, the "cities" started to include entire families. 

Naturally the conditions in these camps were preposterous when compared with any standard of modernity. There were few schools, no plumbing, and mice, rats, cockroaches and mosquitoes only added to the miasma residents fought to overcome around the clock.

With this background in mind, I was floored when I saw this youtube clip:

The video you just watched was posted in January of 2008, who knows when it was actually filmed. 

Now, a year later, some major medias are starting to touch the subject. The only reason I want you to watch the following clip from the today show is to grasp how the subject is being dealt with. 

Any normal human being that viewed such circumstances probably wonders, first, "how did this happen", followed closely by "how can I help." The Today Show piece below focuses in on, well you make your own determination. I just cannot beliee Matt Lauer decided to end the piece, after looking at deplorable living conditions of his fellow countrymen, by saying (paraphrasing here), "people were living above their means"!?!?!

Well Matt, are they at their means now? And if so, does that make you sleep better at night?

Just a stupifying display of arrogance and indifference. It brings to mind a quote from the great architect and humanitarian, Charles Luckman"

"The trouble with America is that there are far too many wide-open spaces         surrounded by teeth."

Thousands of people saw the horror of this situation and decided to help, bringing food, money, bottled water and other goods to these unfortunate people, which is what I knew the American people would do. 

If you would like to send a donation to aid these people, the Fishes and Loaves organization in Sacramento has been assisting the residents of their tent city for months. 

Info for them is HERE.

This is development is not exclusive to Sacramento, California. Here are a few news articles I dug up on "Tent Cities" in other parts of the country if should you want to investigate the matter further:

Tent City In Pinellas Seeing More Recently Unemployed Homeless

Bad Economy = Many Living in RV's in Venice Beach

The more fascinating articles come form sources that may explain why this has been swept under the rug until very recently. These are from news sources outside of the country and they are writing in a more stunned, disbelieving tone. To the readers of these publications, America has always been more than a country, it has been an idea.

Sacramento tent city is just one of dozens in an ailing America

America faces new Depression misery as financial crisis worsens

The credit crunch tent city which has returned to haunt America

If this economic downturn has not yet altered your habits, as well as your thinking, I hope this post has brought you one step closer to reality. Preparedness is not everything, but this is going to be a tough time for this country, so it cannot hurt any more by your being so.

Applying Pressure

These are a couple of interesting articles on the New Economy applying pressure on the Old Economy. 

Some benefit us, some do not. 

However, the mantra is the same: 

It's evolve or die!

I hope you find them as useful as I did.

Sacha Segan from PC Magazine writes about:

Is Cheap Wireless the Recession's Bright Spot?

JP Raphael at PC World has written the scariest article I have read in months:

People Search Engines: They Know Your Dark Secrets…And Tell Anyone

The folks over at OhMyGov write about the recent release of the International Innovation Rankings:

U.S. ranks eighth in innovation